While the conflict has been raging for over a year now, the violence has not stopped. According to Israeli authorities, Hamas is still holding 96 hostages in the Gaza Strip, while Israel continues its repeated bombings against the Palestinians. The question now is: what will be the outcome of this conflict?
Current positions:
On the Israeli side:
Benjamin Netanyahu has no choice: he must crush Gaza. This fight seems to have taken on a personal dimension for the current Israeli prime minister. He is now risking his political career if the outcome goes against Israel. Indeed, the prime minister’s popularity ratings were down in Israel before the October 7 attacks, and he had to deal with weekly mass protests against planned judicial reforms that had polarized the country for months. Moreover, many of his critics in Israel, and even some of his supporters, accuse him of responsibility for failing to protect Israeli citizens during the October 7 attack. For someone who had said he wanted to be remembered as the protector of Israel, and who had based his political career on his ability to defend the country, this is a severe blow. Mr Netanyahu has also resisted enormous internal pressure to agree to a ceasefire in order to secure the release of about 100 hostages still held by Hamas. Despite all this, Netanyahu has consistently denied the accusations.
Netanyahu is also now the subject of an international arrest warrant and is banned from several countries, including Giorgia Meloni's Italy. However, the Israeli prime minister will be able to count on the support of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has never hidden his support for Israel in this conflict. The latter had also declared that Hamas would do better to return the Israeli hostages before Trump arrives in the Oval Office, otherwise they would pay a very high price. The question now is whether the United States will be prepared to send troops into Gaza or not.
Israel must also emerge victorious from this conflict for geopolitical reasons. Israel has been the target of several conflicts since its creation in 1948, in the face of repeated attacks from its neighbors. Israel is also regularly the target of terrorist attacks on its soil, the deadliest of which was obviously that of October 7, 2023. Israel aims to gain respect in the region in the hope of seeing these attacks cease. Israel, faced with its bad international reputation, also has nothing more to lose and will certainly not be afraid to use all the forces in its power to achieve its ends.
On the Hamas side:
For Hamas, the situation is now critical. The terrorist group is fighting against a state and therefore has much less resources. Hamas is also losing key supporters, such as Iran, which will certainly not want to increase tensions with the United States. Relations between Iran and Donald Trump are very fragile and unstable. As evidence, Trump did not hesitate in 2018 to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), which he considered ineffective, in order to increase strict economic sanctions against the country.
Hezbollah is also in a bad position in Lebanon against Israel. Hamas is also losing its leaders, such as Ismail Haniyeh, assassinated by Israel in July 2024, or Yahya Sinwar, also assassinated by Israel in August 2024. Both men exercised significant influence in the terrorist organization and were the masterminds of the October 7 attack.
What outcome?
Negotiations for a mere ceasefire are utopian today. As for Hamas, one cannot negotiate with a terrorist group. The terrorists have nothing to gain from sitting at the negotiating table and actually care little about the fate of the Palestinians. From a strategic point of view, the treatment of the Palestinian people plays into the hands of Hamas, because part of the world supports the Palestinian people, and Hamas has no interest in ending Palestinian suffering.
Moreover, Israel has little to gain from entering into negotiations as well. The country has been accused of violating the laws of war since October 7, 2023, and seems determined to end it for good. The country should also not stop committing the war crimes it is accused of in Gaza, because if Hamas does not have to comply, why should Israel? The egos of the two major players in this conflict should therefore not allow negotiations and make the future of the sad Palestinian people even more unclear.
The only possible outcome today is for Israel to take Gaza, no matter what. Israel is now too powerful an adversary for Hamas, and taking Gaza would be a way for Israel to secure itself. However, the question remains: what will be the fate of the Palestinian people? Will we witness a new Nakba, a forced exodus for the Palestinians? Can we hope for the creation of a Palestinian state? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently reaffirmed his opposition to the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state, stating that Israel must “ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat,” a position that he said “contradicts the Palestinian demand for sovereignty.”
In addition, Israeli ministers, such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, have called for the "emigration" of Palestinians from Gaza and the reestablishment of settlements in the territory. These remarks have been condemned by France and the United Kingdom, who say that such statements are only intended to stir up tensions.
Israel the big winner?
From a military perspective, Israel's victory should be undeniable. However, Israel will emerge from this conflict, whatever the outcome, diminished. Israel lost the war from a diplomatic perspective. The country suffers from a bad reputation around the world, as many find Israel's retaliations exaggerated and even cruel. It cannot be denied today that the actions of the Netanyahu government in Gaza are brutal and horrific, especially when innocent children are the targets of these retaliations.
An estimated 11,355 children have been victims of the war's atrocities, including 710 infants under the age of one. The total number of victims in Gaza, as of August 25, 2024, was also estimated at over 40,405 Palestinians killed, of whom 56,000 to 60,000 are women and children. Through the violence of its actions, Israel has lost its image as a martyr in the world and is now seen by many as an oppressor.
However, it is important to remember that this conflict is not only Israel's fault. The atrocities suffered by the Palestinians are also caused by Hamas, which wants the people to become martyrs. It is also our fault for having allowed this debate to take hold in our country. Today, what was only a debate between pro-Palestinians and pro-Israelis in France has become a pro-Muslim and pro-Jewish debate. Society cannot find a middle ground and understand that the wrongs are shared. This is also very convenient for the extremes, who take advantage of it, such as LFI or the RN.
This conflict has succeeded in making utopian, even stupid, the idea of imagining peoples of different beliefs living together. The era of Toledo, Spain, where Christians, Muslims and Jews lived together during the Middle Ages, is a fairy tale. The era when Si Kaddour Benghabrit, founder of the Great Mosque of Paris, gave false Muslim identity certificates to Jews and hid them in his mosque is today a simple exception. Finally, the era when Menahem Froman, an Orthodox Israeli rabbi and former settler in the West Bank, promoted values of peace and sharing with Palestinian leaders, including Yasser Arafat and members of Hamas, seeking to advocate reconciliation through the shared spiritual values of Judaism and Islam, is a miracle.
Furthermore, the losers in this conflict are the civilians on both sides. Palestinians have been the victims of atrocities by the Israeli government for far too long, and Israelis are also suffering from this war, being Hamas' number one target. Both sides are also victims of widespread hatred. This conflict has also had the effect of increasing anti-Semitism and Islamophobia in the world. The propaganda of both sides has allowed our societies to justify this type of behavior. Finally, both sides seem to have to resign themselves to the decisions of their respective leaders, who are burying the slim hopes that we had of seeing cohabitation established in the region.
This tragic conflict, which plunged two peoples into suffering and division, raises a fundamental question: how can we build a future where coexistence would be possible, in a region where history seems to condemn each generation to relive the same pain? Beyond local issues and our personal beliefs, this war also questions the international community on its ability to go beyond hate speech and propose sustainable solutions to prevent such tragedies from being repeated elsewhere. Only, can we and do we want to?
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